Prices of shares on Gowagr's prediction markets are not fixed. The prices of shares are determined dynamically based on supply and demand. This system is designed to reflect the market’s collective belief about the likelihood of an event happening.
1. Market Demand and Supply
If more users are buying “Yes” shares in a market, the price for “Yes” will rise, while the price for “No” will decrease and vice versa. This creates a balance where the total of “Yes” and “No” prices always adds up to ₦100.
2. User Sentiment and Position Volume
The volume of shares being bought or sold also plays a role. A sudden spike in users trading on a specific outcome can cause a rapid price shift. This is especially common when new information emerges (e.g., a breaking news update).
3. Market Maturity and Timing
Prices tend to be more volatile when a market is close to its closing time. Early on, small trades can move prices significantly due to lower liquidity. Near the end, prices tilts as more users join.
By understanding how share prices are determined, you can make more informed decisions like knowing when to sell your shares for the best return.
You may not be able to buy shares at the displayed probability / price because there is a spread.